By It’s the final day of the jumps season at Sandown on Saturday and our man has his eye on a couple of fancies in the bet365 Gold Cup.
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Value Bet tips: Saturday April 27
1pt e.w. Lario in 1.50 Sandown at 22/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt win Weveallbeencaught in 3.35 Sandown at 14/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Courtland in 3.35 Sandown at 50/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power, Hills 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
Court could pop up for Bowen team
After what seems like a never-ending series of soft-ground handicap chases since the autumn, it’s refreshing to learn the bet365 Gold Cup looks likely to be run on a relatively sound surface, with Sandown watering through the week – on a daily basis – in order to maintain good ground on the jumps course for the final day of the season.
There are more showers forecast overnight but nothing too serious before racing on Saturday and that’s surely going to hold the key to cracking this tricky puzzle.
Four or five horses stand out when it comes to appreciating more spring-like conditions and they clearly include the remarkable Kitty’s Light, who rounded out his big-race treble in this event 12 months ago. He’s only 5lb higher in the weights this year and lines up on the back of a cracking run when fifth – with the cheekpieces back on – in the Randox Grand National at Aintree.
We know Kitty’s Light can handle a quick turnaround too and there’s very little not to like in truth, other than the price which can also be said of the Henry De Bromhead-trained Amirite, who could have run in the Irish Grand National again, or the Ultima at Cheltenham, but has been kept fresh for a big prize on suitable ground.
They’re two of the most likely winners, despite Nick Rockett, Minella Cocooner and Le Milos all looking likely to be popular for champion trainer elect Willie Mullins and closest pursuer Dan Skelton, but there are others who look capable of running huge races now underfoot conditions have changed for the better.
The best outsider to consider is Peter Bowen’s COURTLAND, who would have only been third at Hereford last month but for a couple of late departures in the race, but it smacked of a prep run over two miles considering he’d looked a chaser still very much on the upgrade when winning at Worcester back in August.
He rose from a mark of 109 last May en route to contesting the Old Roan (probably found it a bit too soft that day) off 144 in October, but he’s slid a little back to 141 now and remains completely unexposed as a stayer which is quite appealing as plenty of these have been around the block.
He’s obviously not short of pace but the Worcester victory came over two miles and seven furlongs so he looks worth trying over this even longer trip while the ground is good.
It’s been a heroic effort from his rider Sean Bowen, who missed several weeks of the campaign after smashing his knee in a fall at Aintree on Boxing Day. He was 31 winners in front of Harry Cobden at the time so looks an unlucky loser in the jockeys’ championship given how it’s expected to play out.
Victory aboard Courtland for his father on the last day, something the pair pulled off with 40/1 shot Henllan Harri seven years ago, would no doubt be a sweet postscript and I believe this horse’s chances are a good bit better than the odds imply. He looks a very fair each-way price to me.
Caught can bowl along
The other horse to have on side is WEVEALLBEENCAUGHT, who is very interesting when it comes to the prevailing ground.
Nigel Twiston-Davies’ charge has yet to race on this sort of going over fences but he was third to Hermes Allen in a good-ground Grade 2 novices’ hurdle at Cheltenham last season and I just have a feeling he was hating the heavy conditions when looking a bit laboured in the Ultima last time out.
His dam was a heavy-ground maiden hurdle winner in Ireland but it’s worth underlining the fact Weveallbeencaught is a son of Getaway, who handled all types of going himself including good to firm.
More importantly, the pick of Getaway’s jumping progeny include the 2019 bet365 Gold Cup (good) winner Talkischeap and last year’s Sky Bet Chase (good) winner and Scottish National (good) runner-up Cooper’s Cross, as well as the likes of Verdana Blue and Getaway Trump, who also relished a sound surface.
I can understand why Twiston-Davies has looked to keep his novice to testing conditions, given the sheer size of him, but he could easily take his form to another level this weekend, especially as he’s dropped to a career-low mark (132) and can sneak into this off the bottom rung.
Derham delight in Sandown opener
I don’t expect many shocks among the Graded races and although Willie Mullins’ victory lap hasn’t all been plain sailing up in Perth this week, he should seal his first British trainers’ title in style courtesy of El Fabiolo in the Celebration Chase and/or Impaire Et Passe in the Select Hurdle.
Ga Law is the closest I got to recommending a bet in the Oaksey Chase but his jockey Gavin Sheehan will have to have his wits about him as – on paper at least – The Real Whacker looks like getting a bit of a freebie on the front end if they’re not careful.
Ga Law would probably prefer a stronger gallop but he’s as short as 4/1 in a place anyway, so I’ll happily give the race a pass and focus on the opening bet365 Novices’ Championship Final Handicap Hurdle.
Knappers Hill and Under Control have won the past two editions and it looks another quality race with Paul Nicholls’ Panjari topping the weights.
An Bradan Feasa attracted support throughout Friday and he’s got to be of interest back on a sound surface after travelling like a well-treated hurdler before weakening close home in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham.
In-form trainer Harry Derham (who has won four novices’ handicap hurdles from 15 starters since the beginning of September) runs two in this and while stable jockey Paul O’Brien appears to have chosen Court In The Act, at the prices I’m drawn to LARIO, who was third behind Secret Squirrel and Helnwein in a novice event at Taunton just over a fortnight ago.
He’s actually 4lb worse off with the second and only 1lb better off with the winner on these terms now sent handicapping but he’d have finished a good bit closer but for a bad mistake two flights from the finish and better should here should also play more to his strengths.
He won on good going on the Flat in Germany for previous connections and his excellent, close-up third to Goodwin at Newbury in March came on a sound surface. He could probably have won that day with a bit more experience under his belt and he’s now a couple of pounds better off with reopposing runner-up Cannock Park.
Published at 1600 BST on 26/04/24
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